Tesla is banking on the future of autonomous robotaxis to offset ongoing weakness in its electric vehicle delivery numbers. In Q2 2025, the company is expected to report global deliveries between 342,000 to 393,000 units—a decline from the 466,000 vehicles delivered during the same period in 2024. That would mark the company’s second straight quarterly drop, reflecting intensified competition and EV market saturation in key regions.
Despite the slump in vehicle deliveries, Tesla’s stock surged 8.2% following the soft launch of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. The service uses specially equipped Model 3 and Model Y vehicles operating under supervised autonomy—meaning a safety driver is still present, but the car drives itself.
Elon Musk emphasized during Tesla’s most recent earnings call that full autonomy is “closer than ever” and that unsupervised rides could arrive before year’s end.
“Robotaxis will fundamentally transform transportation economics,” Musk said. “They’ll be safer, more affordable, and available 24/7. This is where Tesla becomes more than a car company.”
Robotaxi Vision as a Revenue Engine
Tesla has long promoted its robotaxi ambitions as the cornerstone of its future. The plan is to eventually allow Tesla owners to add their vehicles to a shared autonomy network, allowing the cars to generate income while owners are not using them.
While regulatory hurdles remain, especially regarding fully unsupervised autonomous driving, Tesla’s FSD (Full Self-Driving) software continues to improve. In May 2025, Tesla released FSD v13.1 to beta testers, touting smoother merging, better urban navigation, and reduced disengagements.
Tesla claims its robotaxis could reduce per-mile ride costs by up to 60%, undercutting Uber and Lyft rates while increasing profit margins.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Tesla’s pivot to autonomy appears to be resonating with investors. The stock has rebounded 47% since April, when it hit a 52-week low after disappointing delivery numbers and growing competition from BYD, Rivian, and Hyundai.
Wall Street analysts are split:
- Bulls see autonomy as a long-term growth lever that will give Tesla a lead in the $2 trillion global mobility market.
- Bears caution that robotaxi approvals remain years away in most markets, and competition from Waymo, Cruise, and Chinese rivals is intensifying.
Still, enthusiasm around Tesla’s AI capabilities and autonomous roadmap continues to prop up its valuation, even amid softening traditional EV sales.
